What Civil War Could Look Like and How to Prepare

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Talking about civil war preparedness isn’t something I enjoy. However, with tensions as high as they are—and nearly half the country believing it’s likely—it’s something we need to consider.

A 2024 Marist poll found that 47% of Americans believe a second civil war could happen in their lifetime. When you consider the political anger, the cultural divide, and the daily signs of growing hostility, it’s not hard to see why.

Add to that the foreign governments and domestic agitators who benefit from keeping us angry and divided. Then factor in how fast information—true or not—spreads online. It’s not just theory. It’s pressure building in real time.

If nearly half the country thinks civil war is possible, it makes sense to at least plan for it. You don’t need to live in fear. But you do need to be realistic.

Here are a few questions I think are worth working through before things go sideways:

• What could a civil war look like today?
• What are the political and ideological divisions driving us apart?
• Is a course change still possible?
• What can we do to prepare for this possibility?
• What should we think about if we find ourselves in the middle of it?

Before we dive into how everyday people survive this kind of violence, it’s worth understanding what it actually looks like—what real-world sectarian conflict has meant for ordinary communities around the world.

⚠️ DisclaimerTo explain this topic clearly, I have to describe what sectarian civil war actually looks like. I’ve spent over a decade living in places torn by that kind of violence. Some of what follows may be graphic for some.

Sectarian Conflict: What It Actually Looks Like

When people think of civil war, they often picture armies in uniform, battle lines, or maps with clearly defined sides. But that’s not what this looks like anymore. Modern sectarian conflict is messy, localized, and personal. It plays out on city streets, in schools, churches, homes, local parks, and grocery stores. It’s the kind of violence that pits neighbors against each other and destroys any sense of safety.

The following examples show what that looked like in real life—not theory or Hollywood, but the lived experience of everyday people caught in the middle.

Rwanda, 1994

In just 100 days, roughly 800,000 people—mostly Tutsis and moderate Hutus—were slaughtered by their Hutu neighbors. The killings were carried out by hand, often using machetes and clubs. This happened in neighborhoods, schools, and churches. With a pre-genocide population of around 7.5 million, that means over 10% of the population was murdered. Over 2 million (25%) were displaced, and millions more were injured, orphaned, or left permanently damaged. It is one of the clearest and most horrifying examples of what happens when a government, media, and mob mentality all turn against an internal “enemy.”

Balkans, 1990s

In Bosnia and Kosovo, neighbors turned into killers overnight. One day, you’re talking with the guy next door. The next day, he’s pointing you out to a death squad. Cities were shelled. Villages were cleared. An estimated 140,000 people were killed in the Balkan conflicts of the 1990s, out of a combined population of around 6.3 million. Over 2.2 million (33%) people were displaced, and snipers, shelling, and landmines physically injured tens of thousands. In addition, tens of thousands of women were victims of systematic rape, particularly in Bosnia, where sexual violence was used as a weapon of war. As is often the case in conflicts like this, civilians made up 80 to 85 percent of the dead in Bosnia alone.

Iraq, 2003–2009 and beyond

Once Saddam fell, Sunni and Shia militias took over neighborhood by neighborhood. Mixed areas were wiped off the map. People were stopped at checkpoints, interrogated about their names, and killed for giving the wrong answer. Even pronunciation could get you executed. An estimated 150,000 to 200,000 people were killed in sectarian violence, especially between 2006 and 2008. Civilians made up the vast majority of those deaths, with Baghdad and other mixed areas being hit the hardest.

Syria, 2011–Present

What began as a civil uprising fractured into a long, bloody conflict divided along ethnic, sectarian, and ideological lines. Sunni civilians have been targeted by Alawite-dominated regime forces, while Alawite and Christian civilians have also been targeted by Sunni Islamist factions. The war has claimed over 500,000 lives and displaced more than 13 million people. Syria had a pre-war population of roughly 21 million, and over 60% of the population was displaced. Millions of civilians have been wounded, maimed, or disabled. The country fractured into militia-run zones, with civilians navigating daily threats and shifting control lines just to survive.

What Happens When Communities Break

When communities fracture along philosophical lines, the breakdown isn’t just a random story that you watch some talking head speak about. No, it’s lived. It’s the guy living around the corner, along with some of his buddies, who heard something about you through the rumor mill, who are kicking in your door in the middle of the night. It’s the parent in the car behind you who is waiting in the school drop-off line. That barista who makes your mocha, packed-with-sugar, morning latte—she’s building suicide bombs in her off time.

The point is, when this happens, the danger won’t be armies fighting pitched battles. It’s your own neighbors turning hostile. It’s the people you would never expect. Moreover, it doesn’t take many people with the motivation to cause chaos and harm to make life miserable. Three people in a town of thousands could bring life to a terrifying standstill. A few dozen can wreck a city of a million.

The problem with conflicts is that people’s lives don’t stop—they continue. You still have to live, eat, work, pay your bills, and kids need to be educated. There are doctors’ visits, grocery store runs, and you still need to gas up the car. Life goes on.

Average Crime Isn’t the Worry

The difference being, random crime isn’t the worry. What is a concern is that someone decides to detonate a 5000lb VBIED in the middle of an intersection, while you’re waiting to make a left-hand turn. What is a concern is that, because of the violence, you have to wait in a four-hour fuel line that may run out of gas by hour three. How about some crazies from the other side take over an elementary school and start live-streaming, chopping off heads?

In that world, the world of sectarian violence, people will cut off other people’s faces and sew them on soccer balls for fun. That’s the world where people torture others for sport. That’s the world you don’t want any part of, and that’s the world we’ll be living in if this keeps going the way it’s going.

If this happens, with every community in the country having mixed ideologies, philosophies, and demographics, every community will experience pain and suffering. If you think what you saw when Charlie Kirk was assassinated, and it was, you haven’t seen anything yet.

A New Baseline

When this happens, trust disappears. Suspicion is everywhere. Paranoia became a survival skill. Fear is non-stop for everyone.

When this happened elsewhere:

• People started avoiding entire neighborhoods.
• Names and accents became dangerous.
• Looking differently could get you killed.
• Families torn apart.
• Life became unrecognizable from before.

This is what a future civil war looks like. It’s why so many veterans and people who have spent much time in war zones insist you don’t want this.

If lines are ever drawn here, they’ll likely cut straight through families, churches, and communities. It won’t be a red vs. blue states issue. It’ll be door-to-door, block by block.

How Civilians Survived

When things started falling apart, most governments were either part of the problem or completely useless. It was up to families and small groups to figure it out.

Here are the tactics people used to stay alive:

1. Blend In

In Iraq, people faked IDs, changed names, memorized prayers from other sects, and even altered how they dressed. All to avoid being outed.

Tip: Don’t broadcast who you are. Be forgettable. Neutral. Don’t give people a reason to notice you.

2. Adjust Your Daily Routines

In Sarajevo, people constantly changed their routes. They learned which alley had sniper coverage and which time of day was safest to fetch water.

Tip: Get used to varying your patterns. Don’t become predictable. Predictable is targetable.

3. Keep a Low Profile

Don’t draw attention. Don’t make public arguments. Do not post political rants online. And don’t give people a reason to remember you.

Tip: If you’re not seen as part of “the problem,” you’re less likely to be targeted.

4. Build Quiet Alliances

In every conflict, survival often came down to one thing: someone willing to help you. Neighbors hid each other. Friends vouched. Lines were crossed to protect the innocent.

Tip: Know who you trust. Have quiet agreements. No grand gestures. Just a quiet, mutual understanding: “I’ll help you if things go sideways.”

5. Avoid Flashpoints

Every city had them. Markets. Intersections. Temples. Places where tensions blew up regularly. People who kept showing up there? They didn’t last.

Tip: If a place feels edgy, it is. Don’t go there unless you have to. And if you do, go in and out fast.

6. Know the Signals

In Iraq, Sunni and Shia militias left different graffiti, used different slang, and even ran different checkpoints. Knowing who was who saved lives.

Tip: Learn to read your environment. Who controls what? Where are the shifts? What symbols are showing up? Pay attention.

7. Have a Go Plan

When a purge or raid started, people had minutes to act. Those who hesitated often didn’t get a second chance. Prepping wasn’t a lifestyle. It was life or death.

Tip: Know what you’d take. Know where you’d go. Don’t wait for a warning shot.

8. Stay Mentally Grounded

You can’t live in constant fear. The people who made it through long conflicts learned to stay calm, stay sane, and keep a small sense of normal.

Tip: Build routine. Eat meals together. Laugh when you can. Mental endurance is survival.

What to Do Now

Don’t panic — think clearly and act early.

What would you do if your area fractured along ideological lines? You may not know who’s still safe to trust. What if shootings or bombings become regular occurrences? If certain stores became unsafe? If schools get seen as a target?

Ask yourself:

• Who are the people in your life who would quietly watch out for you?
• Are there relationships you depend on that might falter under stress or pressure?
• Do you have a place to go if your area becomes unsafe?
• If needed, what could you change today to avoid becoming a target?

The best time to work through these questions is before you ever need the answers.

❓What Do You Think…What would you add to this list? Leave a comment below — your insight might help someone else prepare.

The Bottom Line

Civil wars don’t always begin with armies clashing on open ground. They start with suspicion, division, and neighbors turning against one another. History shows us what that looks like—and it’s not something we want here. What we’re looking at is internal, decentralized, sectarian conflict.

The lesson is clear: survival depends on awareness, adaptability, and trust built before the crisis arrives. You don’t need to live in fear, but you do need to prepare. Ask the hard questions now, while you still can, and take quiet steps to make yourself and your family more resilient. That way, if the day ever comes when communities fracture, you’ll already be ready.

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