Tracking Gun Sales Through the Decades: Trends, Peaks, and Patterns

Accurately tracking gun sales over time, especially for decades, can be difficult. For example, sales for October 2024 are estimated at 1.26 million firearms, or about 94% of sales for October 2023, but NICS checks for October 2024 were around 5% higher than for October 2023. This is because NICS is also used for concealed carry permit applications, renewals, and other administrative purposes. However, no matter how you measure it, periodic ups and downs aside, gun sales continue to climb decade after decade.

Factors Affecting Gun Sales

There are several factors affecting gun sales and ownership in the United States. These include politics, crime, social unrest, and the impending implementation of new laws.

Politics

A significant factor is whether Democrats or Republicans are in control of federal or state governments. There are often increases in gun sales when a particularly anti-gun candidate is running for office, especially the President of the United States, and sales slow down after a pro-gun candidate wins.

Crime

Increases in crime rates spur more people to buy guns for protection and home defense. Although the media frequently points to FBI statistics to indicate whether crime is increasing or decreasing, most people do not rely on statistics as much as their own experiences or those of people in their lives to determine how safe they feel. Besides that, as we saw this year, FBI statistics were wrong and falsely indicated crime was decreasing when the opposite was true.

Social Unrest and Uncertainty

Social unrest and the uncertainty that comes with it are a driver for higher gun sales. The police shooting of Michael Brown and the Black Lives Matter movement are one example. An even more pronounced effect came about after the death of George Floyd and the subsequent Defund the Police movement. Scenes of what CNN called “mostly peaceful” riots and the anarchy that overtook cities like Portland, Oregon, put people on edge. To make it worse, numerous liberal-run city governments cut funding to police departments, reducing manning levels. They also put restrictions on police, limiting their authority to deal with criminals. These actions hurt morale, causing many LEOs to leave the profession, quit, and move to departments where they felt more supported. The state of Florida posted ads inviting disillusioned LEOs to come to Florida, where they would be welcomed and supported, even offering incentives. By the end of 2022, more than 600 police officers from other states had taken Florida up on its offer. The erosion of police protection in liberal-run areas caused many people to buy guns for the first time in their lives.

Changes in Laws

Impending changes in laws can also affect gun sales. There was a rush to buy AR and AK-style rifles just before the Clinton Assault Rifle Ban went into effect in 1994. The adoption of “shall-issue” laws, starting with Florida’s law in 1987, has driven a huge increase in the sale of handguns.

Raw Numbers Do Not Tell the Whole Story

Just saying a certain number of guns were sold in any given year doesn’t provide much detail. One reason is differences in demographics. The population of the United States has grown from just over 240 million in 1986 to almost 335 million in 2023. Since more people consume more of any product or resource, it is important to look at the per capita figures as well as the total. 

Another factor to consider is the types of guns sold. For a time, fewer rifles were sold because fewer people went hunting or lived in the country where plinking was a popular pastime. However, the rise in popularity and availability of AR15s and other Modern Sporting Rifles increased rifle sales overall. Likewise, concerns over growing violent crime, especially in urban areas, have created a greater demand for handguns than for any other type of firearm.

The easiest way to present the number of guns sold each year is in a table. The table below has several columns:

1. Overall number of guns sold that year.
2. Breakdown of handguns and rifles sold that year. I have not included shotguns, but if you want to know how many were sold, subtract the number of rifles and handguns from the total, and what is left is the number of shotguns.
3. Total population of the United States.
4. Number of gun sales per capita. This does not mean that each person bought a gun; it simply illustrates the trend in gun purchases relative to the overall population. As the figures show, gun ownership has risen faster, proportionally speaking, than the overall population has grown. Since changes often occur slowly over time, I have provided the gun sales per capita figure at five-year intervals.

The figures in the table come from the FBI, the US Census Bureau, the NRA, various media sources, and the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF). Sources do not always agree, so I apologize for any variations or inaccuracies you may encounter. The table presents a reasonably accurate overall picture. Figures for earlier years are difficult to verify because there are fewer sources to compare. You are welcome to do your own research and let us know what you find. The NSSF is an excellent and unbiased source.

Figures only reflect sales through an FFL for which a background check was conducted. These could be sales from a dealer or between private individuals in states that require universal background checks. Thousands of sales between private individuals are not being counted. For example, in one case, when I helped someone I was training buy her first gun in a state without universal background checks, she ended up buying a used gun directly from a police officer I knew. 

I have included notes indicating the dates of events that affected gun sales. Thus, you can see how greatly a presidential candidate’s stance on the Second Amendment affects gun sales.

Significant events that affected gun sales:

1. Clinton Assault Rifle Ban 1994 -2004. Rifle sales increased before it went into effect and again after it ended.
2. 2009 Barrack Obama inaugurated POTUS. People were concerned over the possibility of new restrictive gun laws, leading to increased sales.
3. 2013 Obama was inaugurated for a second term.
4. 2016 Hillary Clinton runs against Donald Trump for POTUS. Again, people felt gun ownership would be threatened and hurried to buy guns.
5. 2017 Donald Trump was Inaugurated as POTUS. Relief that Clinton did not win caused sales to drop.
6. 2020 George Floyd Riots and the Defund the Police Movement created worries over crime and personal safety.

Fun Facts:

1. According to the ATF, there were 13,429 new FFLs issued in 2020, and 11 were denied.
2. The largest importer of guns to the United States in 2020 was Turkey (1,490,251). Most were shotguns (1,279,123).
3. The second largest importer of guns to the United States in 2020 was Austria (1,284,785). Most were handguns (1,279,123). I’ll let you guess which brand.

Results and Assumptions

Looking at the per capita column, there were .015 guns sold for every person in America in 1986. That per capita figure stayed steady for 20 years, with only a small increase in 2006. After that, the sale of guns in the U.S. takes off, hitting a per capita peak of .06 guns sold per person in 2021. It has slowed down a little bit in the past couple of years but still sits at .05. The next time someone tries to tell you the only reason more guns are being sold is because there are more people in the country, tell them they are wrong. The sale of guns to Americans has grown faster, speaking relatively, than the general population. More people really are buying guns.

Americans feel less sure that the government and the police can and will protect them from criminals. Defund the Police, the passage of laws in liberal cities and states decriminalizing drug use and many crimes, and liberal prosecutors and judges releasing criminals without bond and with minor sentencing have made our country less safe, and people know it. So much so that 72% of gun owners say protection is why they bought a gun. Another factor is that more people are enjoying shooting sports like collecting, going to the range, and competition, not to mention the incredible selection and very cool guns tempting us all. It’s nice to know the number of Americans exercising their constitutional right to keep and bear arms is growing and spreading across demographic groups.