Inside CFP expansion battle as SEC, Big Ten and TV networks fight for College Football’s next big move

A December deadline is looming for the College Football Playoff committee to make a decision on the future of expansion for the postseason tournament to crown a national champion.

While there has been plenty of discussion around whether the CFP should expand beyond twelve teams starting in 2027, the question is more centered around how much additional revenue adding a new batch of teams would bring to the conferences.

On Monday, leaders from conferences across the sport, along with Notre Dame, met virtually to discuss financial models that would give them a better sense around how much money additional games would bring each member school.

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Maybe one of the more important questions should center around what’s best for the sport. But, we all know that money is the driving force behind any type of expansion that could happen in the future.

How we got here with CFP expansion, with a hard deadline in-place

After the SEC and Big Ten, who hold a majority stake in these talks, could not come to an agreement on whether it should be a 24 or 16 team playoff moving forward, the topic was tabled until this off-season.

Yes, the Big Ten has been a vocal proponent of adding an additional twelve-teams to the playoff. At the same time, SEC leaders have been pushing for a 16-team playoff, which would only open a certain amount of games that competing networks of ESPN could bid on in the future.

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I would guess it’s fairly easy to see why the Big Ten would want an increase in teams, which is supported by the ACC and Big 12, seeing that it would allow FOX and others to submit bids for the additional inventory.

On their virtual call Monday, there was not a lot of conversation about what a future format would look like , according to sources. But, those intense discussions are coming, especially over the next few months, as a deadline looms.

Remember, there doesn’t need to be a formal discussion regarding the future for ideas to be floated among member schools. All it takes is a phone call or email to gauge the interest of conferences.

Also remember, anything over fourteen games would trigger a clause in the CFP agreement allowing others to join the party from a television network standpoint.

But, only two years into the twelve-team playoff, the push for expansion has drawn unwanted backlash from college football fans. Why mess with something that isn’t broken, or so brand new that we have yet to see its full potential?

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, at the behest of his bosses within the conference, has continued to harp on the problems with getting out of contracts for its SEC championship game. In fairness, the conference has a plethora of sponsors that spend a lot of money on advertising the annual game in Atlanta at Mercedes Benz Stadium.

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If the conference were to align with the Big Ten and other 24-team proponents, they have to know that’s it is financially worth the jump. Also, while we’ve been trending this way for the past few seasons, getting rid of a conference title game is not the most popular move.

Even if the game is starting to lose its luster, or any type of benefit for the college football playoff, it’s obviously still an important financial marker for the conference. And while the Big Ten, ACC or Big 12 might be in agreement about moving forward without these conference title games, they still have to persuade the SEC to join their movement.

What is a possible workaround to appease CFP members?

As we’ve previously reported, there has been talk of turning conference championship weekend into a ‘play-in’ scenario.

But now, with a push from current CFP rights holder ESPN, a new 20-team format is being discussed among committee members, though that conversation did not make its way onto the virtual meeting that took place Monday, according to sources.

It would technically be a 16-team playoff, but with four different play-in games that would determine which additional teams join the field.

Think of it in the same light as the NCAA Tournament’s ‘first four in’ bonanza that took place annually in Dayton, Ohio, before the organization decided to increase the amount of teams who received a bid.

While this might sound appeasing to some, the Big Ten is not onboard with this idea, sources told OutKick-FOX News and others.

In reality, this feels like if we are going to ultimately see the CFP expanded, there has to be enough financial reasons for a conference like the SEC to agree.

And, don’t forget that the current right’s holder, ESPN, would rather continue sublicensing games to networks like TNT so that they would still be in control of the television agreement.

Realistic timeline for an agreement on expansion

Well, we thought there could be something in the works towards the end of the last season when committee members met in Miami before the national championship game.

All sides are arguing over what the future should look like, which will also determine how much money each conference would made from additional games.

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Right now, December is the hard-deadline put into place by ESPN for an agreement on expanding the College Football Playoff.

Also, with the SEC and Big Ten being given a majority vote over other conferences like the ACC, Big 12 and Group of Six, getting the two biggest conferences in college athletics to agree on a format is no easy task.

Don’t expect a decision any time soon, meaning in the next two months. This entire process is complex, as the financial ramifications will ultimately dictate where we head in the future.

There are plenty of college football fans hoping this argument extends past the deadline, so that we continue to having a twelve-team field.

But unfortunately, the power of money will be the ultimate dictator in where we are headed in the future.

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